Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far has been the drop of scoring in open play and the way clubs are finding goals more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.
When we compare scoring methods to the first 11 games the prior season, we note 39 fewer goals in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less in total.
Considering the broader view, the number of shots clubs are making show a staggering drop of 370 in open play than this time last time out.
Regardless of the notable jump in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more attempts created from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating the proficiency clubs are at finding ways to score from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Show the Tale
The 301 goals recorded in 110 matches so far works out at 2.74 goals per fixture, if maintained for the whole season could be the least for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).
Yet merely 196 scores scored in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the least for 16 seasons, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).
2009-10 is also the only Premier League season to witness scoring more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).
What Clubs Are Most Responsible?
When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen the largest drop, scoring only four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.
Apart from Wolves, England's top division's fall in open-play scoring is largely a trend among London clubs, with five out of the city's seven teams scoring at least five goals fewer from open play than last season.
In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring many goals at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them having difficulty to convert in open play this season.
Meanwhile Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with all but one of their 23 scores to date originating in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
We've compared clubs that came up with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted an additional three scores in open-play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 on their way to relegation the previous campaign.
Regarding scoring from set-plays (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the largest rise, with both sides compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.
Man United have recorded double the number scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign prior to their coach took over, while Sunderland again prove more effective at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
Man City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, because they've scored a reduction of three than last season, similar to Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the change in style they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this season's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City stand as the unique club to defy the pattern up to now by achieving the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their overall inventiveness and begin netting increased totals in open play too.
